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Your job is to put together an emissions scenario for the next 200 years that accomplishes 4 things: 1. Keeps the global temperature change below 2.0°C (relative to pre-industrial, so about 1°C above the present temperature). 2. Meets the energy demands of the world’s population. 3. Leaves us in the year 2200 with at least another 100 years’ worth of fossil fuel carbon. 4. Minimizes the per capita costs (combination of climate damages and costs related to shifting to other forms of energy). We’ll assume that the plan that costs the least will leave more money for economic growth and prosperity. You will create your ideal roadmap using a model (Link to an external site below.) to try out different scenarios, exploring the climatic and economic consequences of different choices about energy sources and energy conservation. https://exchange.iseesystems.com/public/davidbice/earth104-capstone-new/index.html#page1 Submit as PDF Step 1: A copy (screen shot) of the graph showing the carbon emissions and the global temperature change (page 1 of the graph pad). This will get pasted into your summary poster. A brief statement demonstrating that this emissions history leaves us with enough fossil fuels left to last another 100 years. This too will be included in your summary poster, positioned next to the graph described above. How do you do this? Take the ending amount of carbon in the Fossil Fuel reservoir (page 11 of the model) and divide it by the ending emissions rate (this will be in Gt C per year) — the result will be in years and is the time past 2200 when we would run out of fossil fuels. Step 2: A brief statement saying what value you used for FF energy intensity, and how you chose that value — what does it represent in terms of a mix of coal, gas, and oil? Take a screen shot of the pie diagram and the associated numerical displays of fossil fuel unit cost and FF energy intensity. This statement and picture will be included in your summary report, along with a screen shot of page 2 of your graphs, which shows the total energy demand and how much of that energy comes from fossil fuels and how much comes from renewables. Note that the amount of renewable energy is just the total energy demand minus the energy obtained from fossil fuels. Step 3: A graph showing the reference global energy demand and actual global energy demand and the energy conserved (page 12 of graph pad), along with the conservation costs. A graph showing the global energy demand, the carbon-based energy, and the renewable energy (page 2 of graph pad). Both of these graphs should appear in your summary poster. A brief statement of what you chose for a population limit, and what kinds of challenges (if any) you think might be involved in achieving this population limit. This should be positioned next to the graph above. Step 4: brief statement of what you came up with for a unit cost of renewable energy, including what percentages of the different sources you used to come up with this number. Take a screen shot of the pie diagram of renewable percentages to accompany your statement. Graphs showing your total energy costs, the renewable energy costs, and the carbon energy costs (page 3 of graph pad), and the unit energy costs (page 15 of graph pad). These graphs and the statement above will be included in your summary poster. Step 5: A graph showing the various costs (page 5 of the graph pad) — the units here are all in trillions of dollars. This graph, along with some commentary will appear in your summary poster. The comments could draw the reader’s attention to important things in the graph. Step 6: After this step, you should have calculated your best roadmap. Include a copy of the graph on page 13 of the graph pad. This should show the plots from several different versions and should highlight the preferred version. There should be a brief statement summarizing what parts of the model you changed to make the different versions. Once you’ve settled on your optimum roadmap, put it all together, into a kind of poster display — a large graphic with explanatory text that lays out your roadmap for the future (you can also submit it as a slide show in Powerpoint). To make this document, you’ll take screen shots of some of the model results, and add arrows and text that illustrate what choices you’ve made and explain your justification for choosing different values and scenarios. An easy way to do this is to use PowerPoint, where you can load, resize, position the screenshots and then add arrows, text, etc. as needed. You can specify the page size and make it very large, fitting everything onto just one slide (it should all be readable when you zoom in) — or you can put the materials onto a series of regular slides. You could do this in other programs too, such as Keynote or Adobe Illustrator, but whichever program you choose, make sure it can save as a PDF file .

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